Schedule and cost risk analysis built to AACE standards, delivered in plain English. We run QSRA, QCRA and integrated QCSRA on live UK programmes — and write the report so the decision-maker can actually act on it.
What good looks like
- A calibrated view of P50, P80 and P95 confidence on schedule and cost.
- Risks identified, quantified and traceable back to workshop input.
- Correlation and merge bias handled properly — not ignored.
- A QRA report that says what it means, with recommendations the programme can own.
What you get
- Risk workshop facilitation and register build
- Three-point estimate calibration
- Monte Carlo model in @Risk, Primavera Risk Analysis, Safran or Acumen
- Correlation and path-convergence analysis
- P50/P80/P95 confidence curves
- QRA report, board-grade
Choosing the right type
Which type of risk analysis do you need? QSRA, QCRA and QCSRA compared.
| QSRA | QCRA | QCSRA (integrated) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| What it analyses | Schedule risk only | Cost risk only | Schedule and cost risk together |
| Output | Probability distribution of completion dates (P50/P80/P95) | Probability distribution of outturn cost (P50/P80/P95) | Joint distribution: probability of any (date, cost) pair |
| Captures prolongation cost? | No | No | Yes — schedule slip auto-extends time-related costs |
| Use when | Schedule confidence is the primary governance question; cost already locked | Cost confidence is primary; schedule already locked | Both governance-critical (most major UK infrastructure programmes) |
| Typical UK trigger | NEC4 Clause 31 Accepted Programme; programme gateway | HM Treasury Green Book business case; capital approval | IPA Major Project gate; MoD MPRP; Sizewell-class scrutiny |
| Tools | Safran Risk, Primavera Risk Analysis, @Risk, Acumen Risk | Same — cost-only mode | Same — integrated mode |
| AACE reference | 57R-09, 64R-11 | 40R-08, 57R-09 | 57R-09 (the integrated framework) |
How we start
A 30-minute discovery call. We listen. If the shape of the problem matches the shape of our work, we come back within one working day with a short scoping note — scope, duration, team, indicative cost. Nothing binding, nothing fluffy.
Frequently asked
Quantitative Risk Analysis — questions we get asked
- What does SOMA's Quantitative Risk Analysis service include?
- Our Quantitative Risk Analysis service covers: Risk workshop facilitation and register build, Three-point estimate calibration, Monte Carlo model in @Risk, Primavera Risk Analysis, Safran or Acumen, Correlation and path-convergence analysis, P50/P80/P95 confidence curves, QRA report, board-grade. All work is delivered by chartered practitioners with live-project experience.
- What outcomes can I expect from QRA?
- A calibrated view of P50, P80 and P95 confidence on schedule and cost. Risks identified, quantified and traceable back to workshop input. Correlation and merge bias handled properly — not ignored. A QRA report that says what it means, with recommendations the programme can own.
- How does SOMA start a QRA engagement?
- We begin with a 30-minute discovery call to understand the shape of the problem. Within one working day we provide a short scoping note — scope, duration, team, and indicative cost — with no obligation.
- What sectors does SOMA deliver Quantitative Risk Analysis for?
- SOMA delivers Quantitative Risk Analysis across UK infrastructure sectors including rail, highways, nuclear, water and utilities, defence, and energy. Our work is areaServed: United Kingdom and we focus on programmes that require chartered, practitioner-led controls.
Got a programme that needs the numbers straight?
Tell us what you are working on. We will come back within one working day with a useful answer — not a sales pitch.